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Four Weeks Out, the Midterms Are Breaking Toward Democrats, Even in Texas. Florida Is Another Story.
With President Trump’s approval near a second-term low and Democrats posting their best generic-ballot numbers of the cycle, the House looks likely to flip and the Senate is suddenly in play. In Florida, Republicans still hold the lead. Election Day is Nov. 3, and with less than four weeks to go, the national numbers are pointing in one direction. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 8.9 points in the Silver Bulletin polling average as of Oct. 7, their best showing of the cycle and up from 6.7 points on Sept. 1. President Trump’s approval rating sits at 37% in the same average. Every one of the 435 House seats is on the ballot, along with 35 Senate seats and 39 governor’s races. Two of the Senate contests are special elections, in Florida and Ohio, to fill seats now held by appointed Republicans. The House Republicans hold a narrow House majority, and almost every signal says it’s in danger. A New York Times/Siena poll released Sept. 15 found voters preferring the Democratic candidate in their district 51% to 43%. On the prediction market Kalshi, traders gave Democrats a 91.7% chance of winning the House as of Monday. Nate Silver’s forecast, updated Oct. 7, says Democrats are in an “excellent position” to retake the chamber. The wild card is the map. Texas, Missouri and North Carolina redrew their districts in the middle of the decade to help Republicans, and California answered with Proposition 50, a new map aimed at offsetting those gains. Ohio and Utah are using new court-ordered maps, and Missouri’s was still tied up in court as of September. The net effect won’t be clear until the votes are counted. “Democrats are in an excellent position to retake the House and are also favored to retake the Senate.” — Silver Bulletin forecast, Oct. 7 The Senate The Senate is where things have changed fastest. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, since Vice President JD Vance breaks ties. The Cook Political Report now rates control of the chamber a toss-up, after shifting three races toward Democrats in the past week. The list of competitive Republican-held seats has grown well beyond the usual suspects. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Sen. Susan Collins 51% to 47% in a Marist poll released Oct. 6. In Texas, state Rep. James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton 51% to 45%, and in Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 46%, both in New York Times/Siena polls released Oct. 3. The same polling found tight races in Iowa, where Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads state Rep. Josh Turek 48% to 47%, and even in Kansas, where Sen. Roger Marshall is ahead of Democrat Adam Hamilton by a single point. Democrats have seats to defend, too. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 50% to 49% in a Fox News poll, and in New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas leads former Sen. John Sununu 51% to 44% in a St. Anselm College poll. Many of these leads sit inside the margin of error, and a few points of movement in either direction could swing control. Florida bucks the trend Florida is the clearest exception. A Mason-Dixon poll for NBC6 and Telemundo, conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 1 among 625 likely voters, found Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 48% to 41% in the governor’s race, with 10% undecided. In the Senate special election, Sen. Ashley Moody led Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon 50% to 40%. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 points. Not every poll agrees. A St. Pete Polls survey for FloridaPolitics.com in mid-September had the Moody-Nixon race tied at 45%. But most recent surveys show Republicans ahead in a state that has moved steadily to the right over the last decade. Florida voters will also decide Amendment 3, which would raise the homestead exemption on non-school property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028. The Mason-Dixon poll found 55% in favor and 26% opposed, short of the 60% a constitutional amendment needs to pass. What to watch Four weeks is a long time in politics, and midterm polling has missed before. Turnout will decide a lot, especially whether younger and less frequent voters show up. Watch Maine, Texas and Ohio on election night. If Democrats win two of the three, they’ll be well on their way to a Senate majority. In Miami-Dade, voters can check their registration, sample ballot and early-voting locations with the county’s Elections Department before heading to the polls.